How they work today…

Different syndicates do different things. Trying to follow money moves today are exceedingly difficult. We have groups that make their stock in trade, setting traps to move the line. That is why you are seeing so many of these college basketball games have moves up to 6 points. Then coming back too their original send out which is another 6 points. They are laying traps for bettors as too their real intention of finally laying an advantage wager.

On the other hand, we also provide numbers for syndicates that literally make all their bets within 10 minutes before game time. The bulk of the money is now on the table, and it is much easier to get down without moving the line significantly.

So, you have two different syndicates, doing two different things with the same information. One attempting to move the line in their favor and the other loading up at the last minute. These syndicates use our numbers along with a couple other services and of course their own intel.

The New Syndicate are Born

Finally, the new W. Walters type groups are bringing in syndicate partners (or runners) to get the money down and stay under the radar. As a syndicate member, you get the advantage plays FREE.  In return you’re getting the best information and an opportunity to follow the pro advantage players.

Today we work with syndicates that are practicing global gambling warfare. Launching organized attacks requiring extreme precision and exact timing. They are gambling hedge funds.

When the signal is given, you have about 15 seconds to make your bets. Otherwise, the entire odds market will have changes and our strike price vanishes.

We instruct syndicate members to be ready at their computers at a specified time on a Thursday as well as Saturday and Sunday mornings. When everyone is in position, our plays will be released.

Syndicates have evolved over the years with technology, but cellphones are still avoided. Group texts reveal personal numbers.

Super Secret Privacy

MSN Messenger is our method of choice for many of the outfits. Random handles in private chat rooms in no way reveal any identifying information. Therefore, no one knows anyone else who is participating, except for us as organizers.

At the appropriate time, our syndicates disclose the desired advantage positions to take. All participating syndicate members involved line up our plays.   They are waiting for the “go” or “stop and cancel order”. That next message is then posted in chat and the syndicate participants make their moves simultaneously.

Getting Down the Cheese

All players get down as much as they can on all their accounts before the market moves. The plays of every individual are submitted in the chat room, and home base of our syndicate documents all wagers into a ledger.
Then our next play follows. And its rinse and repeat.

The pay structure varies from the different syndicate groups we work with, but here is a good example:
The syndicate participants or “runners” are allowed to take 25 percent of all the action for themselves. So, if you can get down $4,000 per play position, then you have a $1,000 bet of your own money on what we consider is “advantage play.” In return, you are placing a $3,000 bet for our syndicate’s operators.

Pounce on the Local Bookies

You might be surprised to know that 95% of the bets are NEVER placed at any established sportsbook — in either Vegas or offshore.
We mandate that you bet on “skins,” which are websites that these days have replaced your corner bookie.

Operators of skin sites do not make or adjust point spreads.  They merely copy the world’s major sportsbooks. So, if all these syndicate bets avoid the core books, then you can theoretically place unlimited wagers on skins without moving the market. Of course, we mean within reason. Betting with skins also delays the time for these bets to be laid off with legit books, that will in turn move and affect the line.

The ole days of the neighborhood bookie who takes your phone call and wagers are completely dead. Today, these local guys pay firms based out of Costa Rica or elsewhere to run a website and handle all the minutiae, while taking the place of the old corner store bookie.

The skin’s website posts all the lines and spreads and allows their bettor/clients to log in with his personal code and place wagers. Skin operators pay a weekly fee that is typically about $12 per account for the boys in Costa Rica to be the front and handle odds, take bets, etc.

The Skins are still booking all the action on credit and collecting from clients stateside.  But he never has to manually take bets throughout the day. More importantly, he does not have to worry about monitoring injuries or any other line movements. He pays a company for all that expertise — or to copy the world’s major sportsbooks.

The Local skins probably do not realize that the accountants, doctors and bartenders on his client list are not really just recreational bettors. They are actually “beards” for sharp, sophisticated syndicates that are betting with the 2020 version of “The Computer Group”

The 33% Theory on Predicting Winners

Have you experienced some “Bad Beats” in sports prediction in the past? Sure, we all have, and it hurts. You are sitting fat and happy, winning the football game by 14-points with a couple of minutes to play and only giving -6.5 points – what could possibly go wrong. Even if the opposition scores a touchdown, you will at least cover the spread.

And then it happens – the roof falls in. Your team goes into that great prevent defense and the bad guys start picking of yards and come down the field to score. Not great, but at least you’re still covering your bet by half a point and only 2:30 more seconds to go. Your guys get the ball on the ten-yard line after the unsuccessful on-sides kick.

So, it’s “run the clock out time”, and our boys go into the victory formation and take a knee, quickly followed by a time out. So now it’s 4th down with 20 seconds to play. Our guys certainly don’t want to leave much time on the clock and risk some strange “Hail Mary pass in the last seconds”. So, they run the clock down as far as possible, then our quarterback heads for the wrong end zone and takes a knee for a 2-point safety, instead of turning the ball over – Yikes – Our half-point win, is now a 1.5-point loss.

We can all recount how many times this has happened to us in all sports, not just football. Last second 3-point basket at the buzzer – Grand slams by the wrong team – there are a million ways to get a last-minute meaningless cover, that doesn’t even affect the winner or loser of the game – But it seriously affects YOU as you have lost the “Point spread cover.”

We all remember these horrible losses. My friends and players in the sports book remind me daily of how they lost the last game last night. What we as humans seem to forget, is we also win about the same number of games this very same way. Nobody talks about “how lucky” they got when your guy hit a last second shot for you to cover the game, but we all remember when we suffer a lose in the same manner.

Now enter the 33% Theory

Over the past 40 years of handicapping games, I have come up with my 33% Theory that explains what we as handicappers are up against in beating the spread. I believe that one-third of games are lost or won by either injury during the game, stupid mistakes by players, meaningless late covers, bad calls by the umpires or refs, weather, or other influences that no one on earth could ever handicap. Some days or weeks it seems all these situations go your way, other times – they ALL go against you.

So I accept that 66% of all games will eventually have outcomes that were out of any statistical handicapping parameters. The problem is, we don’t know which games those will be so we have to approach all games in good faith.

We must be right with the remaining 33% of all games

As professional handicappers or even casual players, we are faced with being right on the remaining third of all games. These are the contests that literally separate the men from the boys. Our Computer Predictions and good ole handicapping skills are put to the test. Always remember to put in the same amount of work and effort on each game when you are making decisions, as you never know the games that your skill is needed the most.
This is the reason it’s difficult to rate predictions or assign ratings to games like making any team or game a “Best Bet”.

Best Bet’s have a high probability of winning if something stupid doesn’t happen. You can be right in your predictions, but wrong in the result when things beyond your control land you on the wrong side of the point spread.

I always laugh to myself, when we give out a prediction that was our Best Bet and it losses by one point in the final seconds. Our team has played horrible in the last minutes turning the ball over from a tipped pass. It seems that players think we have taped up our ankles and are actually playing in the game by the blame that is thrown on us. Horrible emails, on how stupid we are for that prediction. Look we both lost, but the prediction was correct, thing didn’t go our way through no fault of our own. The bottom line is, we know over the week or month; we always come out with a nice profit. We didn’t make over $14 million dollars back in the 1980’s by just being lucky!

Nobody knows where the winners will come from

As I have pointed out before, the big Hilton Super-book handicapping contest here in Las Vegas on NFL games, has never had a season winner that has finished with over a 66% record. As a professional, we know we will come out on top, but we are never sure where those winners will actually come from. For these reasons, we never get too high when we win, or too low when we lose. Most people over bet, and don’t stay within themselves. They wager too much after a hot streak, or worse they try to get even after losses. Stay cool – stay calm, the wins will come.

In the past, new subscribers have signed up for a one-week trial subscription. Sometimes the predictions end the week at 10-3, hitting at a 76% rate. Other weeks we can go 5-8 or 38%. We are not as good as the first week or as bad as the last. Again, we never know when or where the winners will come from.

This is also true in handicapping. We back a lot of underdogs as there is always value taking the points. Every year Las Vegas and all sports books makes their biggest profit on NFL games, as they are the hardest to handicap. The reason so many players lose is because they are looking at the most recent game and forgetting the entire picture. Again, when a team has an impressive win, or gets blown out – THEY ARE NEVER AS GOOD OR BAD AS THEY LOOKED.

Moneyline Break even table


Favorites Underdogs
Line Win % (implied probabilities) Line Win % (implied probabilities)
-1200 92.30% 1200 7.70%
-1100 91.66% 1100 8.34%
-1000 90.91% 1000 9.09%
-900 90% 900 10%
-800 88.88% 800 11.12%
-750 88.23% 750 11.77%
-700 87.50% 700 12.50%
-650 86.66% 650 13.34%
-600 85.71% 600 14.29%
-575 85.18% 575 14.82%
-550 84.61% 550 15.39%
-525 84% 525 16%
-500 83.33% 500 16.67%
-480 82.75% 480 17.25%
-460 82.14% 460 17.86%
-450 81.81% 450 18.19%
-440 81.48% 440 18.52%
-430 81.13% 430 18.87%
-420 80.76% 420 19.24%
-410 80.39% 410 19.61%
-400 80% 400 20%
-395 79.79% 395 20.21%
-390 79.59% 390 20.41%
-385 79.38% 385 20.62%
-380 79.16% 380 20.84%
-375 78.94% 375 21.06%
-370 78.72% 370 21.28%
-365 78.49% 365 21.51%
-360 78.26% 360 21.74%
-355 78.02% 355 21.98%
-350 77.77% 350 22.23%
-345 77.52% 345 22.48%
-340 77.27% 340 22.73%
-335 77.01% 335 22.99%
-330 76.74% 330 23.26%
-325 76.47% 325 23.53%
-320 76.19% 320 23.81%
-315 75.90% 315 24.10%
-310 75.60% 310 24.40%
-305 75.30% 305 24.70%
-300 75% 300 25%
-295 74.68% 295 25.32%
-290 74.35% 290 25.65%
-285 74.02% 285 25.98%
-280 73.68% 280 26.32%
-275 73.33% 275 26.67%
-270 72.97% 270 27.03%
-265 72.60% 265 27.40%
-260 72.22% 260 27.78%
-255 71.83% 255 28.17%
-250 71.42% 250 28.58%
-245 71.01% 245 28.99%
-240 70.58% 240 29.42%
-235 70.14% 235 29.86%
-230 69.69% 230 30.31%
-225 69.23% 225 30.77%
-220 68.75% 220 31.25%
-215 68.25% 215 31.75%
-210 67.74% 210 32.26%
-205 67.21% 205 32.79%
-200 66.66% 200 33.34%
-195 66.10% 195 33.90%
-190 65.51% 190 34.49%
-185 64.91% 185 35.09%
-180 64.28% 180 35.72%
-175 63.63% 175 36.37%
-170 62.96% 170 37.04%
-165 62.26% 165 37.74%
-160 61.53% 160 38.47%
-155 60.78% 155 39.22%
-150 60% 150 40%
-145 59.18% 145 40.82%
-140 58.33% 140 41.67%
-135 57.44% 135 42.56%
-130 56.52% 130 43.48%
-125 55.55% 125 44.45%
-120 54.54% 120 45.46%
-115 53.48% 115 46.52%
-110 52.38% 110 47.62%
-105 51.21% 105 48.79%
-100 50% 100 50%

Gambling winner Bruno Venturi

Bruno Venturi, 41, kept winning while playing a lottery-style game on back in 2009.
However, the company which operated the gambling website insists a software bug meant chance had nothing to do with it.

Surrey-based Eurobet UK Ltd claims that his winnings are null and void because he was mistakenly charged for only one in six of his bets.

The company has refused to pay up, sparking a High Court legal battle, which Judge Simon Brown QC said reminded him of the 1935 film, ‘The Man who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo’.

The film, inspired by a British music hall song of the same name, is a romantic comedy which tells the story of a former Russian aristocrat who by luck wins 10 million francs playing baccarat at a casino.
The casino dispatches a beautiful woman to attempt to lure him back to the gambling tables and he is eventually left penniless again.

Pet shop worker Mr. Venturi, who had won only meagre sums in his previous two years using the website, says he was completely unaware of what was about to unfold when he logged on to play the “Sixty Seconds” game from his home in Naples, Italy, on January 28, 2009.

The company claims an error caused by a software upgrade meant Mr. Venturi was charged for only one in six of the 6,670 wagers he placed, dramatically increasing his chances of winning the game, which has since been removed from the internet.

Patrick Lawrence QC, for Eurobet, said the bug meant it was “mathematically inevitable” that Mr. Venturi would keep hitting the jackpot.

The High Court in London heard that the Italian, who started with just 25 Dollars in his account, began playing at 8.18 p.m. by placing his usual 20 cent bets, but increased the stakes as his apparent luck continued.
He had won $6,275 by 9pm and racked up winnings of $250,000 by 10pm, as he frantically placed as many multiple wagers as the website would allow.

Speaking through an interpreter, Mr. Venturi told the court: “I had always lost previously… but when I started to win, I had a very good feeling. I’m a player and my instincts told me to keep betting.”

Mr. Lawrence challenged him, saying he must have realized that something was wrong, but Mr. Venturi insisted: “How could I realize there was an error. There was no message, I was just drawing, I didn’t have a clue… I thought I was very lucky.”

The Italian, who disputes that any error took place, stopped playing shortly before midnight, having amassed a colossal $888,190 – in just 217 minutes.

When asked why he called it a day, Mr. Venturi replied: “I realized the amount that I was winning and I realized that I had to stop. I had been lucky enough… I am only human. I was taken by the emotions and there was a lot of euphoria.”

He added: “I’ve never had so much money… It’s a very big win; it’s not something that happens every day.”
Mr. Venturi, who offered to come to England to pick up his winnings in cash, said an operator told him “This is incredible, but it does happen” as he transferred some of his winnings to a different online account.

The company, based in Working, is refusing to pay Mr. Venturi, saying the bets breached the website’s terms and conditions, and his winnings amounted to “unjust enrichment”.

Refuting those claims, Mr. Venturi’s barrister, John McLendon QC, said: “Mr. Venturi denies any software error as alleged by the defendant.

“The defendant has failed to establish that Mr. Venturi broke any rules of the game whilst playing and obtaining the winnings.”

He added: “Mr. Venturi performed his part of the game by completing various steps and screens presented to him by the defendant on the website and paid for his bets on the game from the funds in his account. He did everything that was required of him to pay for the bets.

“If his account was not charged at any time for the repeat bets, which is not admitted, that omission was due to the defendant’s failure to completely perform its obligations to him, and to comply with its regulatory requirements.”

The hearing continues.

Why we bet a lot of games

I really wanted to make it clear to players, that professional Sports Betting is not just a DREAM, a FEW (And I mean a very few) are making a living as a PRO. First you must be able to hit 56% to 58% or you’re wasting your time. And it must be done annually, not for a week or month but consistently.

The big thing kids today miss, is looking at twitter and some guy talking about how he gave out a parlay that pay $5000. It may be true, but you will lose all your bankroll following this logic. They want BIG MONEY NOW. And there is only one way to do that, it’s called BANKROLL.

The guys who we make predictions for are not betting $100 units. For example, this year so far, we are up about +315 units. So if you used $100 units, that’s $31,500 for the 10.5 months of the year. Nice results, but not exactly enough to by a new Tesla. It you are using $300 units, you’re not up to $94.500, which will be over $100,000 a year by the time we get to December 31st. A hundred dimes a year is not a bad income, but some of my big guys are betting 5 to 10 times that amount. If you are laying $3,000 per unit, you can expect to make that $1 million a year. But most people don’t have the balls or bankroll to make that kind of money. They can only be confident, after years of knowing that we will get them that 57% not matter what. A lot of guys, never watch the games or check the scores as it’s like slow earning on a bank account.

You made a comment that you only believe in selective plays, not high volume. This year we have played 1,647 plays, at $100 units that’s $164,700 that ran thru the window to give us the $31,500 profit. And we all agree the $31.5K is not a big salary.
So if we use your BEST handicapper MRFOOTYBETS, he has 209 bets @$100 = $20,900 that he ran thru the window, resulting in a +Plus Units of 21.6 units or $100 x 21.6 = $2,160 for 10 months – that’s $216 per month, not too many people are quitting their jobs for two bills a month. At least you can survive on $31,500.

So being selective and betting MRFOOTYBETS, to make the same $31,500 you will need to bet units of $1,458 dollars to make the same $31,500. This takes a lot of players out of action from the get-go. And we are all assuming that they players got the exact same line and made every bet exactly without deviation. One mistake betting $1,458 unit for MR Foot, will cost you bigtime. If you missed one of our plays it cost you $100 bucks.

If my numbers or thinking is wrong, let me know. Remember I’m just an old man that has been doing this since the late 70’s, but I’m willing to learn if anyone can show me a better way.

NFL Football Betting Primer 2021

You have been patiently waiting for months since the confetti fell onto Tom Brady for the umpteenth time last February.  Finally, when the Bucs and Cowboys kick off Thursday night, the NFL season begins.  Baseball’s moniker of “America’s Pastime” is just that – past time, as the NFL now dominates our country’s sporting consciousness more than any other sport.  Three years after the Supreme Court opened the door for state legalized sports gambling, the NFL’s popularity continues growing to even greater heights.  Five years ago, the NFL commissioner said the league would not embrace sports betting.  Now, there are stadiums sponsored by sportsbooks.  Times have changed, but my winning football betting strategy has not!

We all know that by a wide margin, the NFL is the public’s favorite sport to bet.  What most people do not know is that it also is the toughest to beat.  Tight lines and traps lure the public towards danger each week.  I have consistently won on the NFL over the past 25 years with my unique, advantage-driven method: focusing on NFL totals, teasers, individual player props, and futures bets throughout the year.  Here are some key tenets to the wise for surviving (and thriving) in the NFL this year.

NFL Football Betting Strategies

Always be able to separate entertainment vs. money.  Historically, the most heavily wagered games are not the most profitable.  In fact, the opposite is true.  Resist the temptation to bet on the standalone games – Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night – simply because they are the only game on TV and you plan on watching it.  More money has been lost on these games than all other games combined.  When considering a bet, think about it as if it was one of another dozen games on Sunday.  If there’s an edge, play it; otherwise, relish in the fact that you can enjoy these games without losing money on it as those around you do.

Always line shop.  Football spreads, especially the NFL, are incredibly tight.  A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season.  If possible, always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.

Always look for key numbers in NFL games.  Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 or 7, getting off or on these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage for the year.  Roughly 42 percent of all NFL games end up with the final score reflecting one of these five margins (3, 4, 6, 7, 10).

Always keep your discipline.  As I have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of betting in general is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose.  This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL where the set schedule of kickoff times always leads to chasing.  Sports books make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the “I need to win this bet so I can avoid a losing week”.  Don’t be a sucker.  Chasing has ruined more lives than I care to remember.

In general, most sharps will tell you to avoid betting teasers.  While I generally agree with that, there is one exception.  I make good money every year teasing NFL sides (not totals).  I am very selective though and look for teases that can take me through the key numbers of 3, 4, 7, and 10.  Three team teasers paying +170 or better can be smart bets, though their availability is fewer and farther between as the books have slowly caught on.  Get them while you can.

Do not overlook player props.  While I have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry itself has put good money in my pocket over the last decade through betting player props.  The tons and tons of data out there for fantasy heads has fueled a plethora of player prop options in most books, especially for prime-time games.  With the good analysis and information, there are multiple advantage plays every week.

Finally, have fun.  You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends.  Don’t waste it.  If winning consistently as a sports bettor was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it.  It’s hard to win, especially with the NFL.  The most important thing to remember is that you should be betting for enjoyment, not to make this month’s rent.  Always keep perspective and manage your bankroll.

If you want to improve your chances at profiting consistently, then heed my pointers above and get the KrackWins team in your corner to guide you.  We delivered an excellent winning NFL season last year with my approach.  Pigskin is in full bloom.  Let’s do this thing!