Miami Stars or Duds?…Have you been watching the way the Miami Heat plays their games these days…It’s all show time and no Team. The Miami Heat have three very gifted ball players who perform like the Harlem Globe trotters with a ME first brand of basketball. The word "TEAM" does not exist in their actions on the court. I would love to see them come together and play a final quarter of a game as a unit. I will take a stand now…My money is against them taking home the NBA title this year, and I will be betting my money against them…
Big Steeler Injury...Maukice Pouncey the Offensive center for the Boys in Black and Gold will leave a huge hole in their line….This is a huge injury in my handicapping.
Super Bowl Underdogs of 3-points or less…Have been money in the bank in the playoffs over the last 20 years – They are 15-3 straight-up and against the spread. This situation has happened twice before in the Super Bowl. The Forty Niner's beat the Bengals back in 82 and when the Skins beat Miami a year later.
Say it ain’t so Rex… Anybody else going to miss Rex Ryan this week? He would have been a breath of fresh air for the media, with great quotes every day. The HBO series “Hard Knocks” was one of my favorites, and I really enjoyed his banter and style. We will be bored to death with the scripted answers coming from the mouths of the Super Bowl Coaches this week. Grab the Red Bull, and try to stay awake. It didn’t matter if you love or hated Rex, you were still interested when he took the microphone…Maybe next year.
Super Bowl Betting Line
…When the betting line came up Green Bay -2.5 last Sunday night at the Hilton Sports book, I thought somebody had posted the wrong favorite. I know it’s just wishful thinking, if the line every moves to Steelers +3, I will take out a second mortgage on my house. (Don’t tell my wife) Green Bay has been the darling of the betting public all year, and again the line only reflects what the bookmakers believe is needed to balance the sides, not who will win the game. The sharp money here is sitting on the sides betting all the Pittsburgh money +2.5 they can get. Late in the week this line will make a big move closer to Pick-em.
Big REX RYAN mistake… Watch for the Pittsburgh Steelers to control the clock and ground game next Sunday, like they did against the Jets. Rex Ryan made a big mistake, when he opted to kick-off to Pittsburgh after winning the coin-toss in the AFC championship. The Steelers played ball control for over eight minutes, finally scoring a touchdown. All this was happening in 12 degree temperatures, while second year quarterback Mark Sanchez set on the side lines freezing his ass off. Because of this huge mistake by Ryan, Sanchez was literally cold and never able to find his rhythm until he got the ball in the second half…The game was over by half-time. Coaches need to stop being cute…If you win the damn coin-flip, take the damn ball and try to score. Giving it to the other team can backfire. I really believe that if Rex Ryan took the ball as he should have, the game might have gone the other way. Quit trying to be cute with these stupid moves…they may have taken you out of the BIG GAME.
Prop it UP…We have made some nice money on prop bets over the years, and look to do so again this year. Some of the good stuff is already gone, as the sharps move in quickly. I remember back in 85 when the Chicago Bears had there great team and the opening prop for Refrigerator Perry scoring a touchdown opened at 15-1. The wise guys knew, that if the Bears dominated that game like we predicted, coach Ditka was going to rub it in by letting the fridge score one for the Ditka-ger. As you probably remember, the Bears humiliated the Redskins 45-10. By the time the game kicked off, we had bet the “Fridge Touchdown Prop” all the way down to 5-2. Stay tuned, I will have some good props for you in the next couple of days.
Two Most Popular bets for this Super Bowl…
1. Parlay: Packers and the Over
2. Pittsburgh on the Money Line.
Getting EVEN…If Ben Rothlesburger wins on Sunday, it will be his redemption, after starting the season sitting out four games for naughty behavior. He will equal Tom Brady with Super Bowl Rings – If Aaron Rogers holds up the Lombardi Trophy, it will be his redemption for having to sit behind Brett Favre every year.
The Reason the SUPER BOWL line will not cross 3…Black Sunday occurred here in Vegas back in 1979 when the Steelers opened up at -2.5-point favorites over the Cowboys. The Cowboys were bet up to 5, but came back to 4 by game time. Bookies are still sick about the final score.
The Dreaded middle had occurred in the Super Bowl, where the sharp money had won both sides of the game, the bookies had blood in there shoes.
Do Points matter in the BIG GAME…The point spread has only come into play once, in the last five Super Bowls. Pittsburgh defeated Arizona 27-23 as 6.5 point favorites. Since the current playoff format, the winner has covered 14 out of the last 20, with two ATS pushes.
Steeler Stats…Pittsburgh has now tied Dallas with 8 Super Bowl appearances, and can become the all-time winner of the Lombardi trophy with six if they can defeat Green Bay. (Dallas and San Francisco also have 5 wins)
Cheese Head Stats…Green Bay won the first two Super Bowls back in the sixties before this game became the national obsession it is today. Green Bay will try to duplicate what the Steelers did back in 2005 when they beat Seattle in SB. They won three straight road games in the playoffs…two years later the NY Giants also accomplished the feat, knocking off the undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl.
First half Super Bowl… Pittsburgh went out to a 20-0 lead against the Jets, while Green Bay took a 14-0 lead over the Bears in the Championship games last week. Neither team did crap in the second half. Both teams let their opponents back in the game making for close finishes. Can somebody please play a complete game next Sunday?
The question is, did these two teams only play well in one half, or did there opponents make adjustments to shut them down. Remember last year, the Colts had complete control in the first half, when the Saints came out at half-time and gambled with the on-side kick that completely turned around the tempo of the game and made New Orleans a winner.
The Judge has ruled…Court adjourned!