Bruno Venturi, 41, kept winning while playing a lottery-style game on Eurobet.com back in 2009.
However, the company which operated the gambling website insists a software bug meant chance had nothing to do with it.
Surrey-based Eurobet UK Ltd claims that his winnings are null and void because he was mistakenly charged for only one in six of his bets.
The company has refused to pay up, sparking a High Court legal battle, which Judge Simon Brown QC said reminded him of the 1935 film, ‘The Man who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo’.
The film, inspired by a British music hall song of the same name, is a romantic comedy which tells the story of a former Russian aristocrat who by luck wins 10 million francs playing baccarat at a casino.
The casino dispatches a beautiful woman to attempt to lure him back to the gambling tables and he is eventually left penniless again.
Pet shop worker Mr. Venturi, who had won only meagre sums in his previous two years using the website, says he was completely unaware of what was about to unfold when he logged on to play the “Sixty Seconds” game from his home in Naples, Italy, on January 28, 2009.
The company claims an error caused by a software upgrade meant Mr. Venturi was charged for only one in six of the 6,670 wagers he placed, dramatically increasing his chances of winning the game, which has since been removed from the internet.
Patrick Lawrence QC, for Eurobet, said the bug meant it was “mathematically inevitable” that Mr. Venturi would keep hitting the jackpot.
The High Court in London heard that the Italian, who started with just 25 Dollars in his account, began playing at 8.18 p.m. by placing his usual 20 cent bets, but increased the stakes as his apparent luck continued.
He had won $6,275 by 9pm and racked up winnings of $250,000 by 10pm, as he frantically placed as many multiple wagers as the website would allow.
Speaking through an interpreter, Mr. Venturi told the court: “I had always lost previously… but when I started to win, I had a very good feeling. I’m a player and my instincts told me to keep betting.”
Mr. Lawrence challenged him, saying he must have realized that something was wrong, but Mr. Venturi insisted: “How could I realize there was an error. There was no message, I was just drawing, I didn’t have a clue… I thought I was very lucky.”
The Italian, who disputes that any error took place, stopped playing shortly before midnight, having amassed a colossal $888,190 – in just 217 minutes.
When asked why he called it a day, Mr. Venturi replied: “I realized the amount that I was winning and I realized that I had to stop. I had been lucky enough… I am only human. I was taken by the emotions and there was a lot of euphoria.”
He added: “I’ve never had so much money… It’s a very big win; it’s not something that happens every day.”
Mr. Venturi, who offered to come to England to pick up his winnings in cash, said an operator told him “This is incredible, but it does happen” as he transferred some of his winnings to a different online account.
The company, based in Working, is refusing to pay Mr. Venturi, saying the bets breached the website’s terms and conditions, and his winnings amounted to “unjust enrichment”.
Refuting those claims, Mr. Venturi’s barrister, John McLendon QC, said: “Mr. Venturi denies any software error as alleged by the defendant.
“The defendant has failed to establish that Mr. Venturi broke any rules of the game whilst playing and obtaining the winnings.”
He added: “Mr. Venturi performed his part of the game by completing various steps and screens presented to him by the defendant on the website and paid for his bets on the game from the funds in his account. He did everything that was required of him to pay for the bets.
“If his account was not charged at any time for the repeat bets, which is not admitted, that omission was due to the defendant’s failure to completely perform its obligations to him, and to comply with its regulatory requirements.”
The hearing continues.
THE COMPUTER GROUP REVEALS THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRETS!
BlogShhhhh….Don’t tell anybody
During the 1980’s, We were part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Sports Books. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we now call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data.
We were successful for two reasons. First, we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole. Those days are gone forever. The second key to success is to understand how the numbers really work.
ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER
Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.
Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager 11 to win 10. Half the players select team A and collect their $10 when they win. The other players choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie $11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.
THE BIG MISCONCEPTION
General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. They hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsidedly in the books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd.
The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without balancing the books.
THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED
Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favorite.
But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favorite wins.
If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favorite bettors and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners.
If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favorite. This results in a loss of $67,500.
Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favorites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins.
So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.
TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS
Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50-coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favorite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.
Basic NFL Teasers for building A Bankroll
BlogMany bettors like to avoid teasers because they think that they are just that, a tease to lure you in and ultimately take your cash.
Well, while that may be true a high majority of the time, blindly playing two subsets generally referred to as Basic Strategy Teasers has been profitable for many years – even if played blindly, and if you can mix in some handicapping with these teams, you can increase the already impressive winning percentages even more.
Before we go on, this article will only focus on two-team, six-point football teasers. A teaser is a bet where you get to move the points on a point spread or total to your advantage a certain number of points, in this case six, and all the teams in your teaser must cover the favorably adjusted spreads for you to win.
For example, let us say that you lean toward Atlanta -10 and Denver +4½, but they are only borderline leans at those spreads. One option in this case would be to play a two-team six-point teaser where you move those lines in your favor to get Atlanta -4 and Denver +10½. If both teams cover those seemingly favorable lines, you win the bet.
Now how much do you win? It used to be that most books paid even money (+100) on two-team six pointers, and a vast majority of the time, that short payout is not enough compensation for moving the line six points, which does indeed make those teasers sucker bets in the long run.
However, the very important exceptions are the basic strategy teasers, as these have been blindly profitable for a long time. As more and more bettors have become aware of this, many books have adjusted and reduced the payouts for two-team six-pointers to -110. Now you will see that the teasers we are about to discuss are good enough to beat even the -110 odds, but there are still books who cater to U.S. clients.
Although we will only be discussing two-team teasers, take note the fair price for three-team six pointers is +180 and for four-team six-pointers, it is +300.So what are Basic Strategy Teasers? Well, the two biggest key numbers in the NFL are 3 and 7, and those are the most common winning margins by a very wide margin. Thus, a Basic Strategy Teaser is a teaser that crosses through both the 3 and the 7. Therefore, the two subsets were are referring to with six-pointers are teasing down favorites between -7½ and -8½, and teasing up underdogs between +1½ and +2½.
As you can see, those teasers allow you to get those favorites down to laying less that a field goal and the favorites up to getting more than a touchdown. So are these types of teasers really profitable when others are not?
Before answering this question, consider that at +100, you need to hit a teaser more than 50 percent off the time to make a profit, which means that you need to hit better than 70.7 percent with each individual leg of the teaser (.50½). At a price of -110, you need to win more than 52.3 percent of the teasers to make a profit, meaning you need to hit at 72.4 percent (.523 ½) with each individual leg.
Well, we ran the numbers going all the way back to 1985 and right through yesterday, which was Week 10 of 2011, for the two basic teaser groups, and we even broke those numbers down to home and away, and here are the results of teasing individual games by six points:
All NFL games teased six points – STARTING September 8, 1985
As you can see, no matter which split you look at, the percentage is good enough to turn a profit even at -110 odds! It appears that teasing home teams has been better in both groups, especially if your book pays out at -110, in which case the profit is teasing road teams is smaller.
However, small profit is still profit, so there is no good reason to simply leave the road teams on the table.
We tacked 51 Touts on Twitter for six years and 106,000 paid picks, see the spreadsheet of the results.
Betting NewsLEGAL BETTING SYNDICATES
BlogDifferent syndicates do different things. Trying to follow money moves today are exceedingly difficult. We have groups that make their stock in trade, setting traps to move the line. That is why you are seeing so many of these college basketball games have moves up to 6 points. Then coming back too their original send out which is another 6 points. They are laying traps for bettors as too their real intention of finally laying an advantage wager.
On the other hand, we also provide numbers for syndicates that literally make all their bets within 10 minutes before game time. The bulk of the money is now on the table, and it is much easier to get down without moving the line significantly.
So, you have two different syndicates, doing two different things with the same information. One attempting to move the line in their favor and the other loading up at the last minute. These syndicates use our numbers along with a couple other services and of course their own intel.
The New Syndicate are Born
Finally, the new W. Walters type groups are bringing in syndicate partners (or runners) to get the money down and stay under the radar. As a syndicate member, you get the advantage plays FREE. In return you’re getting the best information and an opportunity to follow the pro advantage players.
Today we work with syndicates that are practicing global gambling warfare. Launching organized attacks requiring extreme precision and exact timing. They are gambling hedge funds.
When the signal is given, you have about 15 seconds to make your bets. Otherwise, the entire odds market will have changes and our strike price vanishes.
We instruct syndicate members to be ready at their computers at a specified time on a Thursday as well as Saturday and Sunday mornings. When everyone is in position, our plays will be released.
Syndicates have evolved over the years with technology, but cellphones are still avoided. Group texts reveal personal numbers.
Super Secret Privacy
MSN Messenger is our method of choice for many of the outfits. Random handles in private chat rooms in no way reveal any identifying information. Therefore, no one knows anyone else who is participating, except for us as organizers.
At the appropriate time, our syndicates disclose the desired advantage positions to take. All participating syndicate members involved line up our plays. They are waiting for the “go” or “stop and cancel order”. That next message is then posted in chat and the syndicate participants make their moves simultaneously.
Getting Down the Cheese
All players get down as much as they can on all their accounts before the market moves. The plays of every individual are submitted in the chat room, and home base of our syndicate documents all wagers into a ledger.
Then our next play follows. And its rinse and repeat.
The pay structure varies from the different syndicate groups we work with, but here is a good example:
The syndicate participants or “runners” are allowed to take 25 percent of all the action for themselves. So, if you can get down $4,000 per play position, then you have a $1,000 bet of your own money on what we consider is “advantage play.” In return, you are placing a $3,000 bet for our syndicate’s operators.
Pounce on the Local Bookies
You might be surprised to know that 95% of the bets are NEVER placed at any established sportsbook — in either Vegas or offshore.
We mandate that you bet on “skins,” which are websites that these days have replaced your corner bookie.
Operators of skin sites do not make or adjust point spreads. They merely copy the world’s major sportsbooks. So, if all these syndicate bets avoid the core books, then you can theoretically place unlimited wagers on skins without moving the market. Of course, we mean within reason. Betting with skins also delays the time for these bets to be laid off with legit books, that will in turn move and affect the line.
The ole days of the neighborhood bookie who takes your phone call and wagers are completely dead. Today, these local guys pay firms based out of Costa Rica or elsewhere to run a website and handle all the minutiae, while taking the place of the old corner store bookie.
The skin’s website posts all the lines and spreads and allows their bettor/clients to log in with his personal code and place wagers. Skin operators pay a weekly fee that is typically about $12 per account for the boys in Costa Rica to be the front and handle odds, take bets, etc.
The Skins are still booking all the action on credit and collecting from clients stateside. But he never has to manually take bets throughout the day. More importantly, he does not have to worry about monitoring injuries or any other line movements. He pays a company for all that expertise — or to copy the world’s major sportsbooks.
The Local skins probably do not realize that the accountants, doctors and bartenders on his client list are not really just recreational bettors. They are actually “beards” for sharp, sophisticated syndicates that are betting with the 2020 version of “The Computer Group”
The 33% Theory on Predicting Winners
BlogHave you experienced some “Bad Beats” in sports prediction in the past? Sure, we all have, and it hurts. You are sitting fat and happy, winning the football game by 14-points with a couple of minutes to play and only giving -6.5 points – what could possibly go wrong. Even if the opposition scores a touchdown, you will at least cover the spread.
And then it happens – the roof falls in. Your team goes into that great prevent defense and the bad guys start picking of yards and come down the field to score. Not great, but at least you’re still covering your bet by half a point and only 2:30 more seconds to go. Your guys get the ball on the ten-yard line after the unsuccessful on-sides kick.
So, it’s “run the clock out time”, and our boys go into the victory formation and take a knee, quickly followed by a time out. So now it’s 4th down with 20 seconds to play. Our guys certainly don’t want to leave much time on the clock and risk some strange “Hail Mary pass in the last seconds”. So, they run the clock down as far as possible, then our quarterback heads for the wrong end zone and takes a knee for a 2-point safety, instead of turning the ball over – Yikes – Our half-point win, is now a 1.5-point loss.
We can all recount how many times this has happened to us in all sports, not just football. Last second 3-point basket at the buzzer – Grand slams by the wrong team – there are a million ways to get a last-minute meaningless cover, that doesn’t even affect the winner or loser of the game – But it seriously affects YOU as you have lost the “Point spread cover.”
We all remember these horrible losses. My friends and players in the sports book remind me daily of how they lost the last game last night. What we as humans seem to forget, is we also win about the same number of games this very same way. Nobody talks about “how lucky” they got when your guy hit a last second shot for you to cover the game, but we all remember when we suffer a lose in the same manner.
Now enter the 33% Theory
Over the past 40 years of handicapping games, I have come up with my 33% Theory that explains what we as handicappers are up against in beating the spread. I believe that one-third of games are lost or won by either injury during the game, stupid mistakes by players, meaningless late covers, bad calls by the umpires or refs, weather, or other influences that no one on earth could ever handicap. Some days or weeks it seems all these situations go your way, other times – they ALL go against you.
So I accept that 66% of all games will eventually have outcomes that were out of any statistical handicapping parameters. The problem is, we don’t know which games those will be so we have to approach all games in good faith.
We must be right with the remaining 33% of all games
As professional handicappers or even casual players, we are faced with being right on the remaining third of all games. These are the contests that literally separate the men from the boys. Our Computer Predictions and good ole handicapping skills are put to the test. Always remember to put in the same amount of work and effort on each game when you are making decisions, as you never know the games that your skill is needed the most.
This is the reason it’s difficult to rate predictions or assign ratings to games like making any team or game a “Best Bet”.
Best Bet’s have a high probability of winning if something stupid doesn’t happen. You can be right in your predictions, but wrong in the result when things beyond your control land you on the wrong side of the point spread.
I always laugh to myself, when we give out a prediction that was our Best Bet and it losses by one point in the final seconds. Our team has played horrible in the last minutes turning the ball over from a tipped pass. It seems that players think we have taped up our ankles and are actually playing in the game by the blame that is thrown on us. Horrible emails, on how stupid we are for that prediction. Look we both lost, but the prediction was correct, thing didn’t go our way through no fault of our own. The bottom line is, we know over the week or month; we always come out with a nice profit. We didn’t make over $14 million dollars back in the 1980’s by just being lucky!
Nobody knows where the winners will come from
As I have pointed out before, the big Hilton Super-book handicapping contest here in Las Vegas on NFL games, has never had a season winner that has finished with over a 66% record. As a professional, we know we will come out on top, but we are never sure where those winners will actually come from. For these reasons, we never get too high when we win, or too low when we lose. Most people over bet, and don’t stay within themselves. They wager too much after a hot streak, or worse they try to get even after losses. Stay cool – stay calm, the wins will come.
In the past, new subscribers have signed up for a one-week trial subscription. Sometimes the predictions end the week at 10-3, hitting at a 76% rate. Other weeks we can go 5-8 or 38%. We are not as good as the first week or as bad as the last. Again, we never know when or where the winners will come from.
This is also true in handicapping. We back a lot of underdogs as there is always value taking the points. Every year Las Vegas and all sports books makes their biggest profit on NFL games, as they are the hardest to handicap. The reason so many players lose is because they are looking at the most recent game and forgetting the entire picture. Again, when a team has an impressive win, or gets blown out – THEY ARE NEVER AS GOOD OR BAD AS THEY LOOKED.
Moneyline Break even table
BlogGambling winner Bruno Venturi
BlogBruno Venturi, 41, kept winning while playing a lottery-style game on Eurobet.com back in 2009.
However, the company which operated the gambling website insists a software bug meant chance had nothing to do with it.
Surrey-based Eurobet UK Ltd claims that his winnings are null and void because he was mistakenly charged for only one in six of his bets.
The company has refused to pay up, sparking a High Court legal battle, which Judge Simon Brown QC said reminded him of the 1935 film, ‘The Man who Broke the Bank at Monte Carlo’.
The film, inspired by a British music hall song of the same name, is a romantic comedy which tells the story of a former Russian aristocrat who by luck wins 10 million francs playing baccarat at a casino.
The casino dispatches a beautiful woman to attempt to lure him back to the gambling tables and he is eventually left penniless again.
Pet shop worker Mr. Venturi, who had won only meagre sums in his previous two years using the website, says he was completely unaware of what was about to unfold when he logged on to play the “Sixty Seconds” game from his home in Naples, Italy, on January 28, 2009.
The company claims an error caused by a software upgrade meant Mr. Venturi was charged for only one in six of the 6,670 wagers he placed, dramatically increasing his chances of winning the game, which has since been removed from the internet.
Patrick Lawrence QC, for Eurobet, said the bug meant it was “mathematically inevitable” that Mr. Venturi would keep hitting the jackpot.
The High Court in London heard that the Italian, who started with just 25 Dollars in his account, began playing at 8.18 p.m. by placing his usual 20 cent bets, but increased the stakes as his apparent luck continued.
He had won $6,275 by 9pm and racked up winnings of $250,000 by 10pm, as he frantically placed as many multiple wagers as the website would allow.
Speaking through an interpreter, Mr. Venturi told the court: “I had always lost previously… but when I started to win, I had a very good feeling. I’m a player and my instincts told me to keep betting.”
Mr. Lawrence challenged him, saying he must have realized that something was wrong, but Mr. Venturi insisted: “How could I realize there was an error. There was no message, I was just drawing, I didn’t have a clue… I thought I was very lucky.”
The Italian, who disputes that any error took place, stopped playing shortly before midnight, having amassed a colossal $888,190 – in just 217 minutes.
When asked why he called it a day, Mr. Venturi replied: “I realized the amount that I was winning and I realized that I had to stop. I had been lucky enough… I am only human. I was taken by the emotions and there was a lot of euphoria.”
He added: “I’ve never had so much money… It’s a very big win; it’s not something that happens every day.”
Mr. Venturi, who offered to come to England to pick up his winnings in cash, said an operator told him “This is incredible, but it does happen” as he transferred some of his winnings to a different online account.
The company, based in Working, is refusing to pay Mr. Venturi, saying the bets breached the website’s terms and conditions, and his winnings amounted to “unjust enrichment”.
Refuting those claims, Mr. Venturi’s barrister, John McLendon QC, said: “Mr. Venturi denies any software error as alleged by the defendant.
“The defendant has failed to establish that Mr. Venturi broke any rules of the game whilst playing and obtaining the winnings.”
He added: “Mr. Venturi performed his part of the game by completing various steps and screens presented to him by the defendant on the website and paid for his bets on the game from the funds in his account. He did everything that was required of him to pay for the bets.
“If his account was not charged at any time for the repeat bets, which is not admitted, that omission was due to the defendant’s failure to completely perform its obligations to him, and to comply with its regulatory requirements.”
The hearing continues.
Why we bet a lot of games
BlogI really wanted to make it clear to players, that professional Sports Betting is not just a DREAM, a FEW (And I mean a very few) are making a living as a PRO. First you must be able to hit 56% to 58% or you’re wasting your time. And it must be done annually, not for a week or month but consistently.
The big thing kids today miss, is looking at twitter and some guy talking about how he gave out a parlay that pay $5000. It may be true, but you will lose all your bankroll following this logic. They want BIG MONEY NOW. And there is only one way to do that, it’s called BANKROLL.
The guys who we make predictions for are not betting $100 units. For example, this year so far, we are up about +315 units. So if you used $100 units, that’s $31,500 for the 10.5 months of the year. Nice results, but not exactly enough to by a new Tesla. It you are using $300 units, you’re not up to $94.500, which will be over $100,000 a year by the time we get to December 31st. A hundred dimes a year is not a bad income, but some of my big guys are betting 5 to 10 times that amount. If you are laying $3,000 per unit, you can expect to make that $1 million a year. But most people don’t have the balls or bankroll to make that kind of money. They can only be confident, after years of knowing that we will get them that 57% not matter what. A lot of guys, never watch the games or check the scores as it’s like slow earning on a bank account.
You made a comment that you only believe in selective plays, not high volume. This year we have played 1,647 plays, at $100 units that’s $164,700 that ran thru the window to give us the $31,500 profit. And we all agree the $31.5K is not a big salary.
So if we use your BEST handicapper MRFOOTYBETS, he has 209 bets @$100 = $20,900 that he ran thru the window, resulting in a +Plus Units of 21.6 units or $100 x 21.6 = $2,160 for 10 months – that’s $216 per month, not too many people are quitting their jobs for two bills a month. At least you can survive on $31,500.
So being selective and betting MRFOOTYBETS, to make the same $31,500 you will need to bet units of $1,458 dollars to make the same $31,500. This takes a lot of players out of action from the get-go. And we are all assuming that they players got the exact same line and made every bet exactly without deviation. One mistake betting $1,458 unit for MR Foot, will cost you bigtime. If you missed one of our plays it cost you $100 bucks.
If my numbers or thinking is wrong, let me know. Remember I’m just an old man that has been doing this since the late 70’s, but I’m willing to learn if anyone can show me a better way.
NFL Football Betting Primer 2021
BlogYou have been patiently waiting for months since the confetti fell onto Tom Brady for the umpteenth time last February. Finally, when the Bucs and Cowboys kick off Thursday night, the NFL season begins. Baseball’s moniker of “America’s Pastime” is just that – past time, as the NFL now dominates our country’s sporting consciousness more than any other sport. Three years after the Supreme Court opened the door for state legalized sports gambling, the NFL’s popularity continues growing to even greater heights. Five years ago, the NFL commissioner said the league would not embrace sports betting. Now, there are stadiums sponsored by sportsbooks. Times have changed, but my winning football betting strategy has not!
We all know that by a wide margin, the NFL is the public’s favorite sport to bet. What most people do not know is that it also is the toughest to beat. Tight lines and traps lure the public towards danger each week. I have consistently won on the NFL over the past 25 years with my unique, advantage-driven method: focusing on NFL totals, teasers, individual player props, and futures bets throughout the year. Here are some key tenets to the wise for surviving (and thriving) in the NFL this year.
NFL Football Betting Strategies
Always be able to separate entertainment vs. money. Historically, the most heavily wagered games are not the most profitable. In fact, the opposite is true. Resist the temptation to bet on the standalone games – Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night – simply because they are the only game on TV and you plan on watching it. More money has been lost on these games than all other games combined. When considering a bet, think about it as if it was one of another dozen games on Sunday. If there’s an edge, play it; otherwise, relish in the fact that you can enjoy these games without losing money on it as those around you do.
Always line shop. Football spreads, especially the NFL, are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. If possible, always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.
Always look for key numbers in NFL games. Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 or 7, getting off or on these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage for the year. Roughly 42 percent of all NFL games end up with the final score reflecting one of these five margins (3, 4, 6, 7, 10).
Always keep your discipline. As I have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of betting in general is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose. This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL where the set schedule of kickoff times always leads to chasing. Sports books make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the “I need to win this bet so I can avoid a losing week”. Don’t be a sucker. Chasing has ruined more lives than I care to remember.
In general, most sharps will tell you to avoid betting teasers. While I generally agree with that, there is one exception. I make good money every year teasing NFL sides (not totals). I am very selective though and look for teases that can take me through the key numbers of 3, 4, 7, and 10. Three team teasers paying +170 or better can be smart bets, though their availability is fewer and farther between as the books have slowly caught on. Get them while you can.
Do not overlook player props. While I have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry itself has put good money in my pocket over the last decade through betting player props. The tons and tons of data out there for fantasy heads has fueled a plethora of player prop options in most books, especially for prime-time games. With the good analysis and information, there are multiple advantage plays every week.
Finally, have fun. You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends. Don’t waste it. If winning consistently as a sports bettor was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it. It’s hard to win, especially with the NFL. The most important thing to remember is that you should be betting for enjoyment, not to make this month’s rent. Always keep perspective and manage your bankroll.
If you want to improve your chances at profiting consistently, then heed my pointers above and get the KrackWins team in your corner to guide you. We delivered an excellent winning NFL season last year with my approach. Pigskin is in full bloom. Let’s do this thing!